Winter Driving Risk: the score that tells you whether to drive today

Iceland's winter driving rule is not "have a 4×4" — it's "match your plan to the actual weather, then downgrade your plan when reality arrives." Most tourists get this wrong. They plan to drive the south coast on day 2 of their trip, then on day 2 there's a yellow alert for the south coast, and they drive anyway because the brochure said "south coast is the easy one." It isn't, in winter.

This tool combines 5 risk variables — wind, temperature, precipitation, route difficulty, tire type — into a single score from 0–100. Below 30 is "go, but cautiously". 60+ is "postpone or take a bus". 80+ is "don't drive, full stop".

It also flags the single biggest mistake: studded tires are legally required on certain dates. From November 1 to April 30, you must use studded tires or have chains in your vehicle when driving in the Westfjords, north Iceland, and East Iceland in winter conditions. Rental companies in those regions usually include studded tires; in Reykjavík they're a paid add-on.

The score blends the inputs. A score of 25 with new driver is more dangerous than a score of 25 with experienced driver. The factors panel shows you which inputs are driving the score — so you can decide whether to change plan, change route, or wait for better weather.

The advice box gives specific actions: "drive at 50 km/h max", "carry chains", "postpone until tomorrow", etc. It does not pretend we can make a 60+ wind drive safe.

This tool uses forecast values you input. Actual weather can change in minutes. Always check vedur.is (the Icelandic Met Office) before driving in winter — they issue colour-coded warnings (green, yellow, orange, red). If the alert is orange or red, do not drive the affected region.

Wind is the dominant hazard — Iceland has recorded gusts above 250 km/h on mountain passes. The 50+ km/h zone doesn't just affect your car physically, it affects visibility (sudden blizzard), and your ability to open a car door. The score's wind factor is non-linear for a reason.